Live status
How it works (in 5 steps)
The market reaches its deadline
When the deadline passes (here: April 22, 2026, end of day UTC), Polymarket sends a single yes/no question — exactly the question shown on the market page — to UMA's Optimistic Oracle. Trading on the market keeps running: users can still buy and sell their YES/NO shares while the oracle proposes and (if disputed) UMA voters decide. Only the final payout is locked until the oracle returns an answer.
Someone "proposes" the answer
Anyone can stake a bond (USDC) and propose what they think the correct answer is — for example YES. The proposer makes a profit if no one challenges them, and loses their bond if they're wrong.
2-hour challenge window
For a short period (typically 2 hours), anyone who disagrees can dispute the proposed answer by posting their own bond. If nobody disputes, the answer is accepted and the market resolves immediately.
If disputed → goes to UMA token holders (DVM)
If somebody does challenge, the question moves to UMA's Data Verification Mechanism. UMA token holders now decide the answer with a two-phase vote: commit (encrypted vote, ~24h) then reveal (decrypt, ~24h). Only votes that are revealed within the window count.
The majority wins; bonds change hands
Whichever side the majority of UMA voters land on becomes the official answer. The losing side's bond is slashed and distributed to honest voters and to the winning side. Polymarket then unlocks payouts for users holding the winning shares.
The full rules — plain English
Who can vote?
Anyone holding the UMA token who has staked it in the voting contract. There are no "approved voters" — the vote is open to all stakers. Voting power is proportional to staked tokens.
How a vote happens (commit-reveal)
UMA uses a two-phase scheme so that nobody can copy other voters:
- Commit phase (~24 hours): each voter submits an encrypted hash of their answer. Other voters can't see what you voted yet.
- Reveal phase (~24 hours): voters publish their actual answer along with the secret salt. The contract checks the salt matches the earlier hash. Votes that aren't revealed in time don't count.
What "majority" really means
To prevent a tiny group from deciding outcomes, UMA requires:
- GAT (Governance Action Threshold) — a minimum amount of tokens must participate. If turnout is too low, the round is rolled forward to the next vote cycle and tried again.
- SPAT (Stake Participation Action Threshold) — at least 65% of all participating tokens must agree on the same answer. Without that supermajority, the question rolls over.
What happens when voters disagree
Voters who agree with the final majority get rewards (paid in UMA, freshly minted, plus a share of the loser's bond). Voters who voted against the majority — or who didn't reveal in time — are slashed (lose a small share of their stake). This makes it expensive to vote dishonestly or sloppily.
How long until the market actually pays out?
If nobody disputes the proposed answer, payouts unlock after the 2-hour challenge window — usually within hours of the market deadline. If it's disputed, expect roughly 2–4 days while UMA's commit/reveal cycle runs (commit + reveal + a small buffer for resolution and Polymarket settlement).
Can the answer change after it resolves?
No. Once UMA finalizes the answer for a question, it is on-chain and immutable. The only way to "change" it is to re-dispute and force another vote, which costs another bond.
What about ambiguous questions?
UMA voters can also vote "p4" — meaning "the question is too ambiguous to answer truthfully". If the majority picks p4, the market is effectively voided and shares pay out 50/50. This rarely happens but it's a real safety valve.
Glossary
- Optimistic Oracle (OO)
- The first layer. Anyone proposes an answer with a bond. If unchallenged, the answer is accepted instantly. Lives on Polygon for Polymarket markets.
- DVM (Data Verification Mechanism)
- The second layer. Active only when an OO answer is disputed. UMA token holders on Ethereum mainnet vote with a commit-reveal scheme to determine the truth.
- Bond
- USDC posted by a proposer or disputer. The losing side forfeits their bond to the winners. This makes lying or trolling expensive.
- Commit phase
- Voters submit an encrypted hash of their vote. Nobody can see how others are voting yet.
- Reveal phase
- Voters publish their actual vote. The contract verifies it matches the earlier hash. Unrevealed votes don't count.
- Slashing
- A small portion of a voter's stake is taken away if they vote against the majority or fail to reveal in time. The slashed amount goes to voters who got it right.
- GAT / SPAT
- Minimum participation and minimum agreement thresholds (65%). Without both, the round rolls over.
- p4 / "too early or unknown"
- Voters' option to mark a question as unanswerable. If majority picks p4 the market voids 50/50.
Where to verify everything yourself
- vote.uma.xyz — official UMA voter dApp. See active and historical votes, including the one for this market.
- UMA docs · DVM 2.0 — the canonical specification for everything described above.
- Polymarket event page — official market and resolution status from Polymarket itself.